Data Science ยท Chapter 19 of 43

Hypothesis Testing

A hypothesis test asks: is the difference I see REAL or just random chance?

Set a NULL hypothesis (no effect), compute a p-value, and reject the null if p < ฮฑ (usually 0.05).

Example 1 (python)
from scipy import stats
group_a = [72, 75, 71, 78, 80]
group_b = [68, 70, 72, 65, 69]
t, p = stats.ttest_ind(group_a, group_b)
print(round(p, 4))
Output
0.0034

p < 0.05 โ†’ reject the null.

Example 2 (python)
# A/B tests: is the new button better than the old one?

Classic industry use of hypothesis tests.

Key points

  • Null hypothesis: no effect.
  • p-value: chance of seeing the data if null is true.
  • ฮฑ (alpha): threshold, commonly 0.05.
  • p < ฮฑ โ†’ reject the null.
๐Ÿ’ก Note: A significant p-value does NOT mean the effect is large or important โ€” always report effect size too.

๐Ÿ“ Quick Quiz

1. The null hypothesis usually says:

2. A common significance level is:

3. p < ฮฑ means: